Oh yes indeedy folks, it’s Grand National 2015 this Saturday. I’ve been keeping my thoughts to myself this year until the field has been more or less confirmed, but now it’s time for me to unleash the beast and set the Generalites on the right path to glory! Come on!
So let’s start by eliminating all the horses that my statistics tell us can’t win the Grand National 2015.
As usual, I’m throwing out all the horses under the age of 9. This is always a controversial point and there are always a queue of experts telling me how wrong I am. But let’s be honest if a 7yo wins this race, it will be a shock, since it hasn’t happened since the 1940s! And as for 8yos well only Bindaree in the last 20 years has popped up and that’s despite the fact that young horses have represented at least 20% of the fields in the last 10 years. Listen, don’t fall for the “A young horse is due” rubbish. Get rid of them.
Horses eliminated:Bob Ford, Owega Star, Corrin Wood, Cause of Causes, The Druids Nephew, Dolatulo, Spring Heeled, Ballycasey, Shutthefrontdoor, Unioniste, Many Clouds. (11)
A host of fancied ones gone there, but don’t worry about it, just do it
Secondary for the age stats is the other side of that coin, old horses. This is a tough race for those aged over 11, so let’s eliminate them.
Horses eliminated: Pineau De Rea, Tranquil Sea, Oscar Time, River Choice (4)
Last season’s winner gone!
Weight is the next issue. Whilst it’s true that the 11 stone barrier has been breached 3 times recently, a bigger clue is the fact that none of the last 10 winners carried more than 1 stone higher than the bottom weight. So as the bottom weight is set to carry 10 stone 2 lbs, we can eliminate any over 11 stone 2lbs.
Horses eliminated: First Lieutenant, Rocky Creek, Lord Windermere (3)
Again another fancied horse goes, but still we can’t concern ourselves, we still have 22 runners left.
“A light campaign is beneficial” Really? You see the stats say not really. The last 10 winners all ran between 3 and 6 times in the season before winning the Grand National. So anyone who has not seen the racecourse at least 3 times shall wave goodbye.
Horses eliminated: Balthazar King, The Rainbow Hunter, Super Duty, Wyck Hill, Chance Du Roy, Court By Surprise, Alvarado, Ely Brown (8).
All we have used so far is Age, Weight and Number of races this season and already we are down to just 14 horses. It’s easy isn’t it?
Let’s look at the possible contenders left standing then: Rebel Rebellion, Mon Parrain, Carlito Brigante, Night in Milan, Rubi Light, Godsmejudge, Al Co, Monbeg Dude, Saint Are, Across The Bay, Gas Line Boy, Portrait King, Soll, Royale Knight.
I also think at this stage that it’s prudent to include 3 reserves just in case they make the cut so Baileys Concerto, Duke Of Lucca and Raz De Maree can also come into calculations for now. So we have 17 to consider.
Now another group of horses that don’t win as often as there percentage representation suggests they should, are horses who have previously ran and finished in a Grand National. They normally have 30% of the field but only Mon Mome in 2009 has won in recent times, so I’m happy to eliminate them.
Horses eliminated: Monbeg Dude, Saint Are, Across The Bay, Soll, Raz De Maree (5)
A dozen contenders to get stuck into. Great stuff.
Wins over 3m are essential so if you haven’t done that by now, you ain’t gonna win here,
Horses eliminated: Rebel Rebellion, Rubi Light, Baileys Concerto (3)
We have narrowed down the field for the Grand National 2015 to just 9 possible winners. Mon Parrain, Carlito Brigante, Night in Milan, Godsmejudge, Al Co, Gas Line Boy, Portrait King, Royale Knight and Duke Of Lucca.
Now I’ve started us off on the right path, I’ll leave it until tomorrow before I unveil my Grand National 2015 Winner.
See you then peeps!
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