That’s Magic!

By | July 5, 2014

It’s Old Newton Cup day at Haydock and I believe the winner will be found in the words of Paul Daniel’s famous catchphrase “That’s Magic”.

There are some compelling stats for this very old race and they lead us in one direction – Magic Hurricane.

In the last 10 years 8 of the winners have been 4 year olds and in that time 9 of the winners have carried between 8-6 and 9-3. By just applying those 2 stats we narrow the field of 18 down to 2 runners: Magic Hurricane and Mighty Yar.

From here we look at previous form. Winning form at Haydock has appeared in the profile of 5 of the previous winners (Magic Hurricane has won here), 8 of the last 10 have won a race no higher than Class 3 (Magic Hurricane has won at C3, Mighty Yar at C2) and finally 9 of the winners have run in between 6 and 16 races in their career, Mighty Hurricane has run 6 times and Mighty Yar 5.

Add to this winning form on Soft ground and the case for the prosecution is clear milord, I present you with the winner of The Old Newton Cup at 3.30, Magic Hurricane.

There has been enough rain at Haydock this week to sink the Ark! But that can work in our favour, as we can find horses that enjoy a bit of give in the going to perform at their best. The 4.40 at Haydock is a typical race in which all the horses at the head of the betting are in form and have been enjoying the summer sun. One of the outsiders in the field Laffan, likes soft ground and hasn’t enjoyed those conditions for a while. Today could see a return to form.

The Sprint at 2.20 has an interesting look to it and the 2 I like here are Annunciation and Justice Day. Both good performers in wet conditions and both capable of outrunning their price. Of the 2 I feel Justice Day has the most compelling form, having knocked heads with Hot Streak here earlier in the season. The soft ground is a bonus for him and the race should be set up nicely.

It is Eclipse day at Sandown and my first note of worth is the poor record of fillies and mares in this race. with only 2 ever having won it before. That has to be a concern for fans of The Fugue. And partly due to that I shall be opposing this excellent mare.

Night of Thunder probably wasn’t given his due credit after winning the 2000 Guineas, as people expected it to be a head to head for Kingman and Australia, and they weren’t too happy at their party being spoiled. However, it was a great run from him and he backed that up with another excellent run at Ascot. He was put in his place there by Kingman but he lost no credit in my eyes and I believe he is a genuine Group 1 performer who will relish this step up in trip. There will be plenty of pace on with Mukhadram and Trading Leather in the field and that should help Night Of Thunder to settle and be delivered late.

Finally. The Coral Charge at 2.05 looks an exciting sprint. I like low drawn horses in this type of race at Sandown and especially those that like to race up with the pace. There are only 2 confirmed front runners and those that like to be held up may struggle to get in to this. My idea of the winner is Shamshon who is unbeaten in 3 runs over 5f, has won here, likes fast ground, has a low draw, races prominently and is ridden by Frankie Dettori. Perfick!

Saturday 5th July – Best Bets

3.30 Haydock – Magic Hurricane @ 11/2 with bet365

2.20 Haydock – Justice Day @ 11/2 with bet365

2.05 Sandown – Shamshon @ 10/1 with bet365

3.50 Sandown – Night of Thunder @ 4/1 with bet365

4.40 Haydock – Laffan @ 10/1 with bet365

 

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