Number 2 in the list of big handicaps this week is the Galway Hurdle. Another mad cap handicap with a huge field round a tight track. It all adds up to to one tough race to crack.
Unfortunately for all my Generalites our current bout of seconditis continued with the Galway Plate. That’s now 3 big handicaps in 5 days in which we have been so near and yet so far. We could easily be sitting here with a very healthy profit and yet instead we are staring down the barrel of the bank manager’s gun as he points his shotgun at my mortgage! Never mind, moving on.
So on to number 2 in my big 4 handicaps, the aforementioned Galway Hurdle. We now need to recover our 10 points that went astray on race 1 but the plan remains the same, put 10 points on this race and hope to maximise profits.
Again, the Galway Hurdle has some good stats for us to start with.
1) 9/10 winners were aged 5 to 7
2) 7/10 winners carried 10st 7lbs or more
3) In recent times, better horses have contested the race leading to 3 of the last 4 winners being rated 135 or higher
If we put these stats into play, then we concentrate on the top 10 horses in the race.
From there we can lose Darwins Fox and Laudatory as they are too old and Fergall as he has been off the track too long. We now have a manageable list of 7.
Good recent form is essential in this and any horse that hasn’t managed to win in one of it’s last 2 runs should be struck from the list. Here we see Bayan, Rawnaq and Midnight Game fall by the wayside.
So as with yesterday we are left with 4 to choose from.
I am happy to evict Vulcanite on the grounds that AP has chosen not to ride it. That in itself is a tip in reverse.
Then there were three. Spookily all 3 are trained by J. Ferguson. This begs the questions – has he deliberately aimed these horses at this race? Has he had the race in mind for 2 seasons for each of these horses? In fact he has 4 runners in the race, so clearly he wants to win it.
I’m very happy to go with the stats and put up the 3 Ferguson horses that fit the bill, namely: Purple Bay, Parlour Games and Borodini. All are ridden by top jockeys so won’t fall down on that score and if the trainer is as good as I think he is, then the Galway Hurdle is coming to England.
Galway Hurdle – Best Bets
4.5 points on Parlour Games @ 12/1 with bet365 (48 points profit)
3 points on Purple Bay @ 16/1 with bet365 (48 points profit)
2.5 points on Borodini @ 20/1 with bet365 (42 points profit)