There has not been too much activity with our ante post selections other than an outing for Chance Du Roy, who ran well last week at Ascot. In hindsight, I think the jockey took up the running too soon, but so well was he jumping and travelling, he had no choice really. I know he faded slightly after the 2nd last, but he wouldn’t have been fully fit, with Aintree as his main oblective and he at least avoided a gruelling battle after the last. Speaking of which, Teaforthree was installed as favourite after a commendable 2nd in the race. However, it is now 10 years since Amberleigh House won the National after finishing 4th in the previous year.
Numerous horses turn up in every National that have been placed or finished the year before, last year they made up 40% of the field, with the highest finisher placing 2nd. In fact in the last 5 years, the average percentage of runners in the field who had ran in the race the year before is 32%, which statistically means that they should be winning at least 1 in 3 times. However as none have won then they are the right type to take on betting wise. So it will come as no surprise when I advise people NOT to bet on Teaforthree.
You may recall that I suggested that the “Professionals” would be highlighting the chances of Burton Port and Cape Tribulation. This of course happened when a well known betting site put them both up as “value”. Well I said don’t get sucked in and look at what has happened this week. Burton Port beat 1 horse home at Doncaster and Cape Tribulation is very doubtful. “Professional” choices indeed!
I will now take umbridge with Jonjo O’Neill. As a trainer, he has given me many great rewards and I like to bet his horses under certain conditions. However, he has a horse – Alfie Sherrin – who he has campagined awfully over the last 2 seasons. This horse had Grand National winner written all over him in my book, but has never been placed to good enough effect to ensure he ran in the race. Yes I am talking through my pocket as I have backed this horse Ante Post for the past 2 seasons at huge prices on Betfair, but it just sticks in my craw that the horse has never had a chance to prove his worth. Rant over!