Don’t overdo it
We start today with 31 of the top 40 in the handicap left in with a chance if we look at the race through a stats eye. Now obviously, this is very subjective to your own point of view and not everyone buys in to the stats angle. I think they have a tale to tell and are a big part of finding the winner.
So what part of this season’s form should we look at. Well if your horse hasn’t matched some of the important criteria (in previous seasons) that we will look at tomorrow, then it would have had to do that this season. However of more pertinence are 2 key criteria: Having had 3 – 6 runs since September and having had its last run in Feb or March.
Firstly the 3-6 runs criteria. Horses need to be fresh on the day but also active throughout the season to be at a peak for their greatest challenge. So we lose Walkon, Mr. Moonshine, Big Shu, Golan Way, The Package and Rose of the Moon. Another 6 bite the dust.
Every one of the last 10 winners and in fact the last 20 winners all had a prep run in Feb or March, but no more than 56 days before the race. So anyone who hasn’t will have to go. By applying this we lose Battle Group, Prince De Beauchene (I know I’m not happy either!), The Rainbow Hunter, Mountainous, Vesper Bell and Alvarado.
So after some more culling today we have lost another 11 members of the field bringing the total casualty list to 20. Tomorrow we shall look at the remaining 20 and try to narrow these down further to a shorter shortlist.