It’s nearly time for me to reveal my Grand National 2015 Winner and I know you are as excited as me. Yesterday we eliminated 34 horses from the list and we are now left with just 9 to choose from, so let’s press on.
Let’s take a look at the final 9 individually.
Mon Parrain – has twice completed the National course, once in the Topham and once in the Becher. He has won a £23K race in France and won over 3m2F at Cheltenham, comprehensively proving his stamina to me. Added to this he will be ridden by Sean Bowen, the conditional jockey of the year.
Carlito Brigante – An error by me to allow him to make the final. Has only run twice since August which eliminates him.
Night in Milan – Missed the cut last year and has been trained for this all year. Won a £32K race at Doncaster last year over 3m 2F so should stay.
Godsmejudge – Not really been in great form this season but what we do know about this horse is that come April, sunshine and a test of stamina, he is set alight. A Scottish Grand National victory and Runner up in the last 2 seasons are more than ample proof that he is a contender.
Al Co – Another Scottish Grand National victor, proving his stamina and class. Not had his ideal conditions all season but did jump adequately in the Becher chase here on his first attempt over these fences. Trained all season with this race in mind and a good jockey booking in D. O’Reagan.
Gas Line Boy – Described as a rhythm horse by his trainer, and could get into a nice one here. My main concern for him is that he needs soft ground to be at his best, something that is unlikely here.
Portrait King – A winner of the 4m Eider Chase in the past, so clearly not without stamina. However, he also has run all his best races on soft ground and his hold up tactics will need a lot of luck in this race.
Royale Knight – From last season’s winning connections and so respected. He has won a Durham National and a Borders National, so won’t be lacking for stamina. This will be the toughest race he has run in so far in his career.
Duke Of Lucca – May not get into the race as he is number 42 on the list, however if he does, could go well at a big price. Won the 3m 1F Handicap chase on this card last season which improved his March/April record to 3 wins, so clearly a Spring Horse.
So we can make strong cases for the remaining eight through wins over 3m plus, so we need some other angle to narrow them down.
Firstly, the ground, as I eluded to above a couple of these will need soft ground to have a major chance and that is unlikely. So we shall wave goodbye to Gas Line Boy and Portrait King.
The Final 5 are: Mon Parrain, Godsmejudge, Al Co, Royale Knight and Duke Of Lucca.
1 more commonality that the last 10 winners shared was that in their early chasing careers, they all ran in races at Listed level or above, indicating that from a very early age their trainers thought that they were top class horses in the making. from the final 5, Royale Knight has been brought along steadily, rising from Class 5 handicaps to Class 2. This is not the form of a Grand National winner. Similarly Night in Milan only ran in class 3/4 races in his novice career.
In recent times, 7 of the last 10 winners had a prep run over hurdles in their winning season. Of our final 4 Mon Parrain and Duke Of Lucca haven’t.
So now we are nearly there folks. After studying the last 10 winners, looking for commonalities, eliminating horse after horse, we are down to the final 2.
The Grand National Winner 2015 will be:
Al Co @ 33s with
Mon Parrain and Duke Of Lucca
Thank you for reading and enjoy the big race.
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