An early Christmas Present

By | November 15, 2014

It’s only 6 weeks to Christmas, and I suggest that we give ourselves an early Christmas Present by backing Present View to win the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham.

In recent years, this contest has been won by improving, young, classy chasers with previous good form at Cheltenham, who are in the first 4 in the betting. So rather than go delving deep into the outsiders, you need to concentrate on those at the head of the market. The top two in the betting are the selection Present View and Buywise from E. Williams’ yard. These two clashed at the festival last season with Present View coming out on top with a gutsy victory, whilst Buywise made numerous errors before staying on into 4th. There is a slight weight difference favouring Buywise today, but I can’t forget those errors and unless the softer ground helps him today, one of those errors will cost him dearly.

Indian Castle had some good novice form and lurks dangerously at the bottom of the handicap. My concern for him is that he has left D. McCain and joined I. Williams. Now I don’t see that as a forward move or one that will guarantee any improvement. In fact for me it is a negative, so he’s going off the list. Easter Meteor has joined D. Pipe from E. Lavelle and that is an improvement, however her level of form  always seems to be one step behind the progressive types. Johns Spirit tries to join an exclusive double winners club, having been successful in this last year. He always runs well here and in this type of race and so has to be respected, but he is much higher in the weights than last year and that rise may stop his quest.

Last season, Present View bumped in to a horse called Annacotty over 3 miles at Kempton and was readily put in his place as his stamina faded. Now as it turned out, that wasn’t a bad run at all, as Annacotty went on to win the Feltham at Kempton, a very valuable Novice chase. Why am I mentioning this? Well Annacotty is due to run in the Hennessy in two weeks, a race that will play to his strengths:  a flat galloping track, 3 and a quarter miles and soft ground. I suggest we get on him Ante-Post today.

Tomorrow I shall be back with a selection for the Greatwood Hurdle plus an early look at I’m A Celebrity betting and highlighting any value options there.

Saturday 15th November 2014 Best Bets

14.30 Cheltenham – Present View @ 13/2 with bet365

 

Ante- Post Selection

Hennessy Gold Cup 29th November – Annacotty @ 33/1 with bet365

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