The Generalites are coming out all guns blazing now as we head towards Cheltenham.
I received a very interesting e-mail from 1 of them asking me if there was much credence to the fact that French Breds have a mixed record in the Queen Mother Champion Chase? Now I love a baguette as much as the next man, but when it comes to French bred horses, let me tell you, that what I have discovered should make you rich one way or another, either as a backer or a layer.
So what is the exciting news I hear you ask, well here is the fact that will astound you – in the past 10 years there have been 37 French or German Bred runners with 5 winners coming from them. In the samer period there have been 40 Irish Bred Runners with 5 winners coming form them. Now that seems like a nice split, but the interesting part is that each of the French Breds were aged 7 or under, whilst the Irish Breds were aged 8 and over.
Let’s use these stats to sort out this race. First up we have the 2 favourites Sire De Grugy and Arvika Legionniere, both French Bred, but both over 7. Rule them out. Yes I said it, let’s throw out the first 2 in the betting! Lay, lay, lay. Now how many of our experts up and down the country on their Cheltenham preview nights will be telling you that? None.
Using some other stats, we need horses proven in this type of class throughout their career and coming in off the back of a decent effort on their last chasing appearance. I suggest that we go for value, so we won’t be talking each way bets, but we will go for a couple at decent prices.
And remember that the bookies are offering Non runner No Bet as a safety net, but the Betfair price may be considerably bigger but without that safety.