It’s Channel 4’s Cup Triple Whammy day, as they show the Bunbury, John Smith and July Cups. How good is that?
In fact, it is a great day’s racing and one that really gets my juices flowing. I’ve told TGL to put the champagne on ice as we are going to be celebrating tonight.
We shall start Oop North at York with the John Smiths Cup at 2.55pm. There are a few good stats for this race that has led me to the bet on Tahira. His weight, rating, age and number of runs this season are all very enticing, but the two key things that attract me are his shrewd trainer and his previous run at York. Back in May, Tahira ran over course and distance in a race won by Clever Cookie. On the day they went off at 25/1 and 7/1 respectively, so obviously Tahira wasn’t fancied, but he ran well getting slightly hampered in the closing stages. However, there is now a massive weight differential to take into account. For just a 4 length deficit, Tahira is now 18lbs better off. That is too big to ignore. Help yourself to the price and get the first bottle of champagne on ice.
Over at Newmarket the 3.15pm is the Bunbury Cup, a notorious handicap where the draw and ground will play a major part. I must be honest and admit that I was really sweet on Don’t Bother Me in this but he is now a non runner so I have had to re-evaluate. Good news though, I have found a live one to get our teeth into. Soft ground prevails here and I believe that Loving Spirit, so often a talking horse, could finally have it’s day in the sun. Being a consistently inconsistent sort i.e you never know which one horse is turning up, he often gets well backed as people expect it to be his day. I don’t normally agree with other people but Loving Spirit’s 2 best runs of the last couple of years have been over 7f with give in the ground, conditions that he will face here. Ideally drawn in 5 I can see this being a good day to get that loving feeling and add some strawberries to that champagne.
Finally the July Cup at 3.50pm and a race that has been turned on it’s head by the recent rainfall. When I looked at this early in the week, I was a keen Due Diligence fan but the downpours on Thursday made me change that thought process. The one I’m keen on now is Gregorian. Now 2 months a go I would have thought you were mad if you had suggested Gregorian had enough speed to win a Group 1 over 6f, but now I’m of the mindset that the ground and pace are key to this fellow. He is very good on Soft ground especially when there is a strong pace. He should get both today. The rest of the fancied horses like faster ground and I can easily dismiss them. Let’s go back to the church and pray to St. Gregory and say I’m a converted Gregorian. Hallelujah.
So let’s go to town and make Channel 4’s Cup Triple Whammy day, a day to remember for all Generalites and one to forget for the bookies. Champagne overload here we come.
Saturday 12th July 2014 – Best Bets
2.55 York – Tahira @ 11/1 bet365
3.15 Newmarket – Loving Spirit@ 16/1 bet365
3.50 Newmarket – Gregorian @ 16/1 bet365