The Shortlist Finalised
To make the final shortlist, our remaining competitors must now pass 5 tests. Firstly, they must have won over 3m. Secondly they must have won a handicap. Thirdly they must have won a race worth 30K. Fourthly, they must now be racing off a handicap mark within 10lbs of their last winning mark. Lastly, experience counts for a lot in the National, so if your fancy hasn’t run at least 10 times over fences, they will struggle.
So let’s get rid of horses who haven’t won over 3m: Last Time D’Albain goes here.
Secondly, we have to rid ourselves horses that haven’t won a handicap as they don’t win Grand Nationals: Quito De La Roque, Wayward Prince, Teafrothree, Burton Port and Hawkes Point. A good chopping of 5 there..
The next criteria is a big one. Horses must have proven ability in big races. They prove this by winning a race worth 30k or more. Let’s rid ourselves of those who haven’t got the class: Across the Bay, Pineau Du Re, Shakalakaboomboom, Lost Glory and One in a Milan.
We are now down to the final 6: Colbert Station, Balthazar King, Lion Na Bernai, Monbeg Dude, Chance Du Roy and Raz De Maree. Of these, Colbert Station has still only had 9 chase runs so he has to go, leaving us with 5 to choose from.
By using the stats, we have whittled the field down to 5 from 40. I’m pretty certain the winner will come from these and on Saturday, I’ll reveal the 3 horses that I shall be backing to win the Grand National 2014.