Well would you believe it, lightening strikes twice with the last race providing us with a good profit. As I said in yesterday’s blog, D. Weld is a master at laying a horse out. I have followed Silver Concorde in each of his runs and knew that he had grown up, all of which I reported before the race. It was nice to have our faith justified and at 16s it was celebration time.
Today, I’m taking more of a shotgun approach to 2 of the big handicaps; The Pertemps and The Byrne Plate and recommend that we back more than 1 horse in each race. The reasoning behind this is purely a mathematical one, as there are some big prices available and it would be folly to nail our colours to one mast when we can do it to multiple ones.
The Pertemps is really tough but it is even harder for horses carrying more than 11 stone and rated higher than 142. So rule them out. Most of the last 10 winners will have had some Cheltenham experience or will have been trained by a big trainer, so I’m splitting my bets on 3 horses that fit into 1 of those 2 categories. Uncle Jimmy, Mister Dillon and Broadway Buffalo, these are all decent enough prices to register an interest in and represent 3 of the biggest and shrewdest yards in the country. So as I always say peeps, do not be afraid to fire more than 1 shot into the target, it doesn’t matter which one lands as long as we hit the bullseye.
The Byrne Plate has 2 very interesting facts to glean information from: 1 V. Williams loves the race, 2. Claiming jockeys do really well. So I suggest that we split our bets again on Shangani and Mr Cracker. When Venetia runs a horse in this, it will have usually ran in the Novice handicap the year before, Shangani did. I was a bit disappointed that it won last time, as I had marked it down for this race in advance, however the price doesn’t reflect that win and it remains excellent value. Mr. Cracker was a decent Irish Novice 3 years ago and maybe isn’t as good as looked likely at first, but he won well on ggod ground in July 2013 and it wouldn’t be the first time that T. Vaughan has laid one out. Add to that the fact that M. Byrne is riding it and taking 3 pound off it’s back and we have the makings of another plot!
The rest of the card is tough, but I do think Al Ferof and Big Bucks will give P. Nicholls a double on the day.
All selections this week will be quoted from bet365, who are Fortune Palace’s chosen Cheltenham bookies.
14.40 – Uncle Jimmy 20s, Mister Dillon 25s and Broadway Buffalo 25s
16.00 – Shangani 16s and Mr. Cracker 50s