Anything can happen
For any action, the total probability of all possible results is 1.
Some events may be much more likely to occur than others, but any event CAN happen. eg it's possible that a coin tossed 4 times will result in 4 'Heads'.
The odds for this are 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/16 (or 0.0625 or 6.25% or 15-1).
Obviously, the odds for it NOT happening are 15/16 (or 0.9375 or 93.75% or 1-15)
More likely or not?
Before a coin is thrown, the odds against throwing 4 Heads is 1/16.
After 3 throws, the temptation for gamblers is to think that because we've already had 3 Heads, the chance of the next throw being Tails is 15/16.
Many gambling systems work on this fallacy.
It must happen soon!
To explain why this is wrong, understand that the odds of 3 Heads coming up is 1/8 (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2). After 3 throws, the odds of Heads coming up again is the same as it ever was ie 1/2, the same as the next throw being Tails.
The work has been done, so to speak, in getting to 1/8. 1/16 is simply 1/8 x 1/2.
A million to one
To put this in layman's terms, the odds of spinning 20 consecutive Tails is 1,048,576 - literally a million to one. If I had spun 19 Tails and asked you to place a £1000 bet on the next spin being Heads, would you think the odds were a million to one in your favour, or 1 in 2?
If you think the answer is a million to one in your favour, please contact me immediately with your bank details!
Seriously, this is an important rule for gamblers:
Just because an event hasn't happened for a while, it ISN'T more likely to happen now.
You're welcome to not believe me, but it may cost you to find out the truth!
For any action, the total probability of all possible results is 1.
Some events may be much more likely to occur than others, but any event CAN happen. eg it's possible that a coin tossed 4 times will result in 4 'Heads'.
The odds for this are 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/16 (or 0.0625 or 6.25% or 15-1).
Obviously, the odds for it NOT happening are 15/16 (or 0.9375 or 93.75% or 1-15)
More likely or not?
Before a coin is thrown, the odds against throwing 4 Heads is 1/16.
After 3 throws, the temptation for gamblers is to think that because we've already had 3 Heads, the chance of the next throw being Tails is 15/16.
Many gambling systems work on this fallacy.
It must happen soon!
To explain why this is wrong, understand that the odds of 3 Heads coming up is 1/8 (1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2). After 3 throws, the odds of Heads coming up again is the same as it ever was ie 1/2, the same as the next throw being Tails.
The work has been done, so to speak, in getting to 1/8. 1/16 is simply 1/8 x 1/2.
A million to one
To put this in layman's terms, the odds of spinning 20 consecutive Tails is 1,048,576 - literally a million to one. If I had spun 19 Tails and asked you to place a £1000 bet on the next spin being Heads, would you think the odds were a million to one in your favour, or 1 in 2?
If you think the answer is a million to one in your favour, please contact me immediately with your bank details!
Seriously, this is an important rule for gamblers:
Just because an event hasn't happened for a while, it ISN'T more likely to happen now.
You're welcome to not believe me, but it may cost you to find out the truth!
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